Bear vs Pig

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Del's Weekend Review & Watchlist 🌙 3-28-21
bearvspig.substack.com

Del's Weekend Review & Watchlist 🌙 3-28-21

What a week for the markets with SPY continuing to gain strength against the relatively weaker tech sector. QQQ still fumbling for its breakout. In the last Nightly-ish watchlist we talked about...

@delthetrader
Mar 29, 2021
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Del's Weekend Review & Watchlist 🌙 3-28-21
bearvspig.substack.com

👋 Hey everyone, hope you’re enjoying the content so far. If you have any suggestions or feedback, feel free to drop a comment below. And if you’re new subscribe for free and read the intro post, here. - Del

Content inside:

  • Market overview

  • Open/closed swing positions

  • Nightly watchlist

  • Nightmare block selling


Market Overview

What a week for the markets with SPY continuing to gain strength against the relatively weaker tech sector. QQQ still fumbling for its breakout. In the last Nightly-ish watchlist we talked about the 390 level being a key breakout, SPY has conquered that level and may go full zombie mode this week beyond 400 if it can stay above 390.

We just had a Sunday print of 403.9 on the SPY. Given that call buying is continuing to contract from its highs, we may continue to see that rotation in IV from the meme stock names, distributed back into the zombie Powell driven “recovery rally”.

On the other hand… The markets from a technical perspective, feel weak, heavy and jittery. We may continue to flirt with over-extended washouts due to dealer gamma hedging, and BTFDs leading to zombie rallies.

Open/Closed Swing Positions

Open — WMT JD DG
Closed — DHR(win), IQ(loss), OLO(win), MNST(win), ETSY(win), ET(loss), FLGT(win), UAL(win)

I currently have 3 open positions, WMT JD DG, which are performing well despite the market turbulence. In the current market, following leaders in daily option volume is key.

I have scaled down the number of positions into the weekend because I’m not very trusting of the current market environment. A lot of failed longs and bearish setups across the board. I do have one short off the book, GME puts out to mid-April.

To put it into perspective last week I had as many as 15 open positions at once.

Nightly Watchlist

Implied volatility continues to play a big role in the momentum of names across the board. This relationship has expanded from being centralized on meme names back in the WallStreetBets months, to rotating out into larger cap and popular themed tickers as the overall market call option buying slowly decreases.

Here’s my watchlist. Again, to be refined tomorrow morning.

Nightmare Block Selling

The big story of the week was VIAC, DISCA, IQ, TME + Chinese-related tech names, completely chopped down. Losing more than half of their value in 2-3 trading sessions. I was actually long IQ for a swing trade.

Twitter avatar for @DeltheTraderDel @DeltheTrader
$IQ Sometimes the market puts you in your place. 🙃
Image

March 24th 2021

5 Likes

I just let my stop hit, but realized afterwards that something larger was going down.

Archegos Capital was the firm that had dropped massive multi-billion-dollar block sales on many of these names.

“Archegos Capital, a private investment firm, was behind billions of dollars worth of share sales that captivated Wall Street on Friday — a fire sale that has left traders scrambling to calculate how much more it has to offload, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The fund, which had large exposures to Viacom CBS and several Chinese technology stocks, was hit hard after shares of the US media group began to tumble on Tuesday and Wednesday.” - FT, Bloomberg

Traders will be cautious around many names related to Archegos Capital holdings this week. No doubt may also be an opportunity for many traders to buy the dip.

And just as I’m writing this article, blood still in the water:

Twitter avatar for @FinancialJuiceBreaking Market News @FinancialJuice
VIACOMCBS HOLDER SAID TO OFFER 45 MLN SHARE BLOCK VIA MORGAN STANLEY.

March 29th 2021

9 Retweets21 Likes
Twitter avatar for @davidfaberDavid Faber @davidfaber
Carnage in $VIAC may not be done. Hearing another $2b block of shares being shopped tonight as liquidation of one or more hedge funds continues.These were the buyers sending $VIAC and $DISCA up over these last 2 months. Buying on swap, using enormous leverage and somehow unknown.

March 29th 2021

151 Retweets593 Likes

More explained here in ZH’s article. And here is CNBC.

Twitter avatar for @zerohedgezerohedge @zerohedge
Here we go: TME first, VIAC, DISCA and all the others on deck.
Image

March 29th 2021

16 Retweets67 Likes

That’s it! see you tomorrow. Have a good Monday open.

In case you missed it, I posted a new issue earlier today on analyzing your trading data. You can find that here.

— Del (twitter)

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